Grant Go/No-Go Expected Value Calculator

Estimates whether a specific grant opportunity is worth the staff time to apply, using your own award size, win odds and preparation hours.

Your estimate

Cost to apply...

Expected net value...

Expected return on application cost...

Break-even win probability...

Estimates only. Assumptions are listed below, and you can change every input.

Most small nonprofits say yes to too many grants. A funder announces an opportunity, the award looks attractive, and forty hours of staff time disappear into a proposal that had a one in ten chance from the start. Without a quick way to compare the likely payoff against the real cost of applying, every opportunity looks equally worth chasing, and the team ends up stretched across applications that were never going to pay for themselves.

This calculator does the arithmetic an experienced grant manager does in their head. It multiplies the award by your estimated win probability to get an expected value, then subtracts what the application costs in staff hours and outside expenses, plus the reporting burden you only carry if you win. It also tells you the break-even win rate: the odds you would need for the application to be worth it. Every number comes from you, so the result is only as honest as your win estimate.

How to use this tool

Enter the award amount and your honest win probability. If you have never applied to this funder and have no relationship, be conservative.
Add the staff hours the application will take, your fully loaded hourly cost, any outside fees, and the reporting hours you would owe if funded.
Read the expected net value. A positive number means the opportunity pays for itself on average; compare your win probability against the break-even rate to see how much margin you have.

What the math assumes

Win probability is your own estimate. The tool does not supply benchmark win rates for any funder or grant type.
Staff time is valued at the fully loaded hourly cost you enter, applied to both preparation hours and post-award reporting hours.
Post-award reporting cost is only incurred if you win, so it is weighted by the win probability before being subtracted.
Expected value is the award multiplied by the win probability. It describes the average outcome across many similar applications, not what will happen with this one.
Indirect cost recovery, matching requirements and future renewals are not modeled unless you fold them into the award amount yourself.

Frequently asked questions

What does a negative expected net value actually mean?

It means that, at the win odds you entered, the average return from applying is less than what applying costs you. It does not mean you cannot win, only that you would need better odds, a larger award or a cheaper application for it to be a sound use of staff time.

How do I estimate my win probability without guessing?

Start from your historical win rate with similar funders, then adjust for fit and relationship: a renewal with a funder who invited you is far more likely than a cold application to a national competition. Track outcomes in your pipeline over time so the estimate improves.

Why is the break-even win probability above 100 percent?

That happens when the cost to apply is larger than the award minus reporting costs. Even a guaranteed win would not cover the effort, so the application only makes sense for non-financial reasons such as building a funder relationship.

Should I include the executive director's time in the hours?

Yes. Leadership review, sign-off and letters of support are real hours that compete with other work. Leaving them out makes every grant look cheaper than it is.

Link to this toolhttps://grantwatchr.com/tools/grant-go-no-go-calculator/

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